Holiday Sales Forecast 2026: Retail Spending Set to Top $1 Trillion
The holiday sales forecast 2026 is in, and the headline number is big. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects U.S. holiday sales in November and December to reach about $1.013 trillion, Forbes reported. However, behind that number is a more careful shopper.
The holiday sales forecast 2026 by the numbers
| Measure | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Total holiday sales (Nov.–Dec.) | About $1.013 trillion |
| Expected growth range | 2.5% to 4.8% |
| U.S. online holiday sales (Adobe) | $275.1 billion, up 6.7% |
| Cyber Week online sales (Adobe) | $47.5 billion, up 6.7% |
Online shopping is again growing faster than in-store sales. In short, more of the season’s spending is moving to phones and laptops.
Shoppers feel stretched
The big total does not mean every household is spending freely. In fact, several surveys point the other way:
- Low confidence: consumer confidence is at its lowest level since 2014, according to Forbes, with worries about food, groceries and gas.
- Fewer gifts: 45% of shoppers plan to buy fewer gifts this year, according to a DOSS survey.
- Tight budgets: 4 in 10 Americans had trouble affording basic necessities, Pew Research found.
- Split incomes: in a KPMG survey, 47% of consumers reported higher household income, while 50% reported lower income.
Prices are a big reason. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October alone, according to the latest CPI report. As a result, many families are hunting harder for deals.
One expert summed it up well. Luca Cian, a professor at the University of Virginia’s Darden School, told Forbes the season "will look like a boom in the aggregate and feel like a grind in the average household."
Trends to watch this holiday season
Value first. Walmart’s U.S. chief merchandising officer, Julie Barber, told Forbes the retailer is seeing "a focus on value and convenience."
Buy now, pay later. More shoppers are spreading payments out over time, Forbes reported.
AI shopping helpers. Traffic from AI tools to retail sites could jump 130%. Even so, 64% of consumers say they will not let an AI assistant spend money without their approval.
Smart holiday shopping tips
- Set a total budget first. Then split it by person, so small purchases do not add up unnoticed.
- Be careful with buy now, pay later. Several small plans at once can be hard to track. Missed payments may also hurt your credit.
- Watch your card balances. Big December balances can raise your credit utilization ratio and lower your score.
- Compare prices before Cyber Week. Some "deals" match prices you could find earlier.
What it means for small businesses
For small retailers, the season brings both opportunity and pressure. Shoppers are searching hard for value, and many are buying online. So a fast, mobile-friendly website and quick replies to questions can make a real difference. An AI receptionist can help answer calls and messages during the busiest weeks.
The bottom line
The holiday sales forecast 2026 calls for about $1.013 trillion in spending, with online sales growing fastest. Yet many shoppers plan to buy fewer gifts and stretch every dollar. For families, a clear budget is the best gift you can give yourself. For businesses, being easy to find and easy to buy from matters more than ever.
This article is for general information only. Figures come from the sources linked above.
