Kevin L. Walker’s Top 4 Trading Indicators at Piiggy Bank Blockchain Labs

Having learned a tremendously throughout the years about the blockchain and cryptocurrency space we know having quality tools is key factor for successful wealth growth and management in the crypto space. We chatted with entrepreneur Kevin L. Walker and here are the top four (4) trading indicators he uses at Piiggy Bank Labs.

What Is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?

The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100. The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.”1

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator developed in 1978.
  • The RSI provides technical traders with signals about bullish and bearish price momentum, and it is often plotted beneath the graph of an asset’s price.
  • An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70% and oversold when it is below 30%.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Formula for the RSI

The RSI is computed with a two-part calculation that starts with the following formula:

RSI

 

The average gain or loss used in the calculation is the average percentage gain or loss during a look-back period. The formula uses a positive value for the average loss. Periods with price losses are counted as 0 in the calculations of average gain, and periods when the price increases are counted as 0 for the calculation of average losses.

The standard is to use 14 periods to calculate the initial RSI value. For example, imagine the market closed higher seven out of the past 14 days with an average gain of 1%. The remaining seven days all closed lower with an average loss of −0.8%.

The calculation for the first part of the RSI would look like the following expanded calculation:

rsi 2

Once there are 14 periods of data available, the second part of the RSI formula can be calculated. The second step of the calculation smooths the results.

RSI

Calculation of the RSI

Using the formulas above, the RSI can be calculated, where the RSI line can then be plotted beneath an asset’s price chart.

The RSI will rise as the number and size of positive closes increase, and it will fall as the number and size of losses increase. The second part of the calculation smooths the result, so the RSI will only near 100 or 0 in a strongly trending market.

Image

As you can see in the above chart, the RSI indicator can stay in the overbought region for extended periods while the stock is in an uptrend. The indicator may also remain in oversold territory for a long time when the stock is in a downtrend. This can be confusing for new analysts, but learning to use the indicator within the context of the prevailing trend will clarify these issues.

What Does the RSI Tell You?

The primary trend of the stock or asset is an important tool in making sure the indicator’s readings are properly understood. For example, well-known market technician Constance Brown, CMT, has promoted the idea that an oversold reading on the RSI in an uptrend is likely much higher than 30% and that an overbought reading on the RSI during a downtrend is much lower than the 70% level.2

As you can see in the following chart, during a downtrend, the RSI would peak near the 50% level rather than 70%, which could be used by investors to more reliably signal bearish conditions. Many investors will apply a horizontal trendline between 30% and 70% levels when a strong trend is in place to better identify extremes. Modifying overbought or oversold levels when the price of a stock or asset is in a long-term horizontal channel is usually unnecessary.

A related concept to using overbought or oversold levels appropriate to the trend is to focus on trade signals and techniques that conform to the trend. In other words, using bullish signals when the price is in a bullish trend and bearish signals when a stock is in a bearish trend will help to avoid the many false alarms that the RSI can generate.

Image

Interpretation of RSI and RSI Ranges

Generally, when the RSI surpasses the horizontal 30 reference level, it is a bullish sign, and when it slides below the horizontal 70 reference level, it is a bearish sign. Put another way, one can interpret that RSI values of 70 or above indicate a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective price pullback. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.

During trends, the RSI readings may fall into a band or range. During an uptrend, the RSI tends to stay above 30 and should frequently hit 70. During a downtrend, it is rare to see the RSI exceed 70, and the indicator frequently hits 30 or below. These guidelines can help determine trend strength and spot potential reversals. For example, if the RSI can’t reach 70 on a number of consecutive price swings during an uptrend, but then drops below 30, the trend has weakened and could be reversing lower.

The opposite is true for a downtrend. If the downtrend is unable to reach 30 or below and then rallies above 70, that downtrend has weakened and could be reversing to the upside. Trend lines and moving averages are helpful tools to include when using the RSI in this way.

Example of RSI Divergences

A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.

A bearish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an overbought reading followed by a lower high that matches corresponding higher highs on the price.

As you can see in the following chart, a bullish divergence was identified when the RSI formed higher lows as the price formed lower lows. This was a valid signal, but divergences can be rare when a stock is in a stable long-term trend. Using flexible oversold or overbought readings will help identify more potential signals.

Image

Example of RSI Swing Rejections

Another trading technique examines the RSI’s behavior when it is reemerging from overbought or oversold territory. This signal is called a bullish “swing rejection” and has four parts:

  1. The RSI falls into oversold territory.
  2. The RSI crosses back above 30%.
  3. The RSI forms another dip without crossing back into oversold territory.
  4. The RSI then breaks its most recent high.

As you can see in the following chart, the RSI indicator was oversold, broke up through 30%, and formed the rejection low that triggered the signal when it bounced higher. Using the RSI in this way is very similar to drawing trend lines on a price chart.

Image

Like divergences, there is a bearish version of the swing rejection signal that looks like a mirror image of the bullish version. A bearish swing rejection also has four parts:

  1. The RSI rises into overbought territory.
  2. The RSI crosses back below 70%.
  3. The RSI forms another high without crossing back into overbought territory.
  4. The RSI then breaks its most recent low.

The following chart illustrates the bearish swing rejection signal. As with most trading techniques, this signal will be most reliable when it conforms to the prevailing long-term trend. Bearish signals during downward trends are less likely to generate false alarms.

Image

The Difference Between RSI and MACD

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is another trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line.

A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the “signal line,” is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy and sell signals. Traders may buy the security when the MACD crosses above its signal line and sell, or short, the security when the MACD crosses below the signal line.

The RSI was designed to indicate whether a security is overbought or oversold in relation to recent price levels. The RSI is calculated using average price gains and losses over a given period of time. The default time period is 14 periods, with values bounded from 0 to 100.

The MACD measures the relationship between two EMAs, while the RSI measures price change in relation to recent price highs and lows. These two indicators are often used together to provide analysts with a more complete technical picture of a market.

These indicators both measure the momentum of an asset. However, they measure different factors, so they sometimes give contradictory indications. For example, the RSI may show a reading above 70 for a sustained period of time, indicating the security is overextended to the buy side.

At the same time, the MACD could indicate that buying momentum is still increasing for the security. Either indicator may signal an upcoming trend change by showing divergence from price (the price continues higher while the indicator turns lower, or vice versa).

Limitations of the RSI

The RSI compares bullish and bearish price momentum and displays the results in an oscillator that can be placed beneath a price chart. Like most technical indicators, its signals are most reliable when they conform to the long-term trend.

True reversal signals are rare and can be difficult to separate from false alarms. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a stock. A false negative would be a situation where there is a bearish crossover, yet the stock suddenly accelerated upward.

Since the indicator displays momentum, it can stay overbought or oversold for a long time when an asset has significant momentum in either direction. Therefore, the RSI is most useful in an oscillating market where the asset price is alternating between bullish and bearish movements.

 

What Does the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Measure?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a measurement used by traders to assess the price momentum of a stock or other security. The basic idea behind the RSI is to measure how quickly traders are bidding the price of the security up or down. The RSI plots this result on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings below 30 generally indicate that the stock is oversold, while readings above 70 indicate that it is overbought. Traders will often place this RSI chart below the price chart for the security, so they can compare its recent momentum against its market price.

 

What Is an RSI Buy Signal?

Some traders will consider it a “buy signal” if a security’s RSI reading moves below 30, based on the idea that the security has been oversold and is therefore poised for a rebound. However, the reliability of this signal will depend in part on the overall context. If the security is caught in a significant downtrend, then it might continue trading at an oversold level for quite some time. Traders in that situation might delay buying until they see other confirmatory signals.

 

What Is the Difference Between the RSI and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)?

RSI and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) are both measurements that seek to help traders understand a security’s recent trading activity, but they accomplish this goal in different ways. In essence, the MACD works by smoothing out the security’s recent price movements and comparing that medium-term trend line to another trend line showing its more recent price changes. Traders can then base their buy and sell decisions on whether the short-term trend line rises above or below the medium-term trend line.

What Is the Money Flow Index (MFI)?

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical oscillator that uses price and volume data for identifying overbought or oversold signals in an asset. It can also be used to spot divergences which warn of a trend change in price. The oscillator moves between 0 and 100.

Unlike conventional oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Money Flow Index incorporates both price and volume data, as opposed to just price. For this reason, some analysts call MFI the volume-weighted RSI.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that generates overbought or oversold signals using both prices and volume data.
  • An MFI reading above 80 is considered overbought and an MFI reading below 20 is considered oversold,1 although levels of 90 and 10 are also used as thresholds.
  • A divergence between the indicator and price is noteworthy. For example, if the indicator is rising while the price is falling or flat, the price could start rising.
Image

The Formulas for the Money Flow Index Are:

money flow index
money flow index

When the price advances from one period to the next Raw Money Flow is positive and it is added to Positive Money Flow. When Raw Money Flow is negative because the price dropped that period, it is added to Negative Money Flow.

How to Calculate the Money Flow Index

There are several steps for calculating the Money Flow Index. If doing it by hand, using a spreadsheet is recommended.

  1. Calculate the typical price for each of the last 14 periods.
  2. For each period, mark whether the typical price was higher or lower than the prior period. This will tell you whether raw money flow is positive or negative.
  3. Calculate raw money flow by multiplying the typical price by volume for that period. Use negative or positive numbers depending on whether the period was up or down (see step above).
  4. Calculate the money flow ratio by adding up all the positive money flows over the last 14 periods and dividing it by the negative money flows for the last 14 periods.
  5. Calculate the Money Flow Index (MFI) using the ratio found in step four.
  6. Continue doing the calculations as each new period ends, using only the last 14 periods of data.

What Does the Money Flow Index Tell You?

One of the primary ways to use the Money Flow Index is when there is a divergence. A divergence is when the oscillator is moving in the opposite direction of price. This is a signal of a potential reversal in the prevailing price trend.

For example, a very high Money Flow Index that begins to fall below a reading of 80 while the underlying security continues to climb is a price reversal signal to the downside. Conversely, a very low MFI reading that climbs above a reading of 20 while the underlying security continues to sell off is a price reversal signal to the upside.

Traders also watch for larger divergences using multiple waves in the price and MFI. For example, a stock peaks at $10, pulls back to $8, and then rallies to $12. The price has made two successive highs, at $10 and $12. If MFI makes a lower higher when the price reaches $12, the indicator is not confirming the new high. This could foreshadow a decline in price.

The overbought and oversold levels are also used to signal possible trading opportunities. Moves below 10 and above 90 are rare. Traders watch for the MFI to move back above 10 to signal a long trade, and to drop below 90 to signal a short trade.

Other moves out of overbought or oversold territory can also be useful. For example, when an asset is in an uptrend, a drop below 20 (or even 30) and then a rally back above it could indicate a pullback is over and the price uptrend is resuming. The same goes for a downtrend. A short-term rally could push the MFI up to 70 or 80, but when it drops back below that could be the time to enter a short trade in preparation for another drop.

The Difference Between the Money Flow Index and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The MFI and RSI are very closely related. The main difference is that MFI incorporates volume, while the RSI does not. Proponents of volume analysis believe it is a leading indicator. Therefore, they also believe that MFI will provide signals, and warn of possible reversals, in a more timely fashion than the RSI. One indicator is not better than the other, they are simply incorporating different elements and will, therefore, provide signals at different times.

Limitations of the Money Flow Index

The MFI is capable of producing false signals. This is when the indicator does something that indicates a good trading opportunity is present, but then the price doesn’t move as expected resulting in a losing trade. A divergence may not result in a price reversal, for instance.

The indicator may also fail to warn of something important. For example, while a divergence may result in a price reversing some of the time, divergence won’t be present for all price reversals. Because of this, it is recommended that traders use other forms of analysis and risk control and not rely exclusively on one indicator.

What Is the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (A/D)?

The accumulation/distribution indicator (A/D) is a cumulative indicator that uses volume and price to assess whether a stock is being accumulated or distributed. The A/D measure seeks to identify divergences between the stock price and the volume flow. This provides insight into how strong a trend is. If the price is rising but the indicator is falling, then it suggests that buying or accumulation volume may not be enough to support the price rise and a price decline could be forthcoming.

KEY TAKEWAYS

  • The accumulation/distribution (A/D) line gauges supply and demand of an asset or security by looking at where the price closed within the period’s range and then multiplying that by volume.
  • The A/D indicator is cumulative, meaning one period’s value is added or subtracted from the last.
  • In general, a rising A/D line helps confirm a rising price trend, while a falling A/D line helps confirm a price downtrend.

The Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (A/D) Formula

AccumulationDistribution Indicator AD
AccumulationDistribution Indicator AD

How to Calculate the A/D Line:

  1. Start by calculating the multiplier. Note the most recent period’s close, high, and low to calculate.
  2. Use the multiplier and the current period’s volume to calculate the money flow volume.
  3. Add the money flow volume to the last A/D value. For the first calculation, use money flow volume as the first value.
  4. Repeat the process as each period ends, adding/subtracting the new money flow volume to/from the prior total. This is A/D.

What Does the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (A/D) Tell You?

The A/D line helps to show how supply and demand factors are influencing price. A/D can move in the same direction as price changes or in the opposite direction.

The multiplier in the calculation provides a gauge for how strong the buying or selling was during a particular period. It does this by determining whether the price closed in the upper or lower portion of its range. This is then multiplied by the volume. Therefore, when a stock closes near the high of the period’s range and has high volume, it will result in a large A/D jump. Alternatively, if the price finishes near the high of the range but volume is low, or if the volume is high but the price finishes more toward the middle of the range, then the A/D will not move up as much.

The same concepts apply when the price closes in the lower portion of the period’s price range. Both volume and where the price closes within the period’s range determine how much the A/D will decline.

Image

The A/D line is used to help assess price trends and potentially spot forthcoming reversals. If a security’s price is in a downtrend while the A/D line is in an uptrend, then the indicator shows there may be buying pressure and the security’s price may reverse to the upside. Conversely, if a security’s price is in an uptrend while the A/D line is in a downtrend, then the indicator shows there may be selling pressure, or higher distribution. This warns that the price may be due for a decline.

In both cases, the steepness of the A/D line provides insight into the trend.1 A strongly rising A/D line confirms a strongly rising price. Similarly, if the price is falling and the A/D is also falling, then there is still plenty of distribution and prices are likely to continue to decline.

The Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (A/D) vs. On-Balance Volume (OBV)

Both of these technical indicators use price and volume, albeit somewhat differently. On-balance volume (OBV) looks at whether the current closing price is higher or lower than the prior close. If the close is higher, then the period’s volume is added. If the close is lower, then the period’s volume is subtracted.

The A/D indicator doesn’t factor in the prior close and uses a multiplier based on where the price closed within the period’s range. Therefore, the indicators use different calculations and may provide different information.

Limitations of Using the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator (A/D)

The A/D indicator does not factor in price changes from one period to the next, and focuses only on where the price closes within the current period’s range. This creates some anomalies.

Assume a stock gaps down 20% on huge volume. The price oscillates throughout the day and finishes in the upper portion of its daily range, but is still down 18% from the prior close. Such a move would actually cause the A/D to rise. Even though the stock lost a significant amount of value, it finished in the upper portion of its daily range; therefore, the indicator will increase, likely dramatically, due to the large volume. Traders need to monitor the price chart and mark any potential anomalies like these, as they could affect how the indicator is interpreted.

Also, one of the main uses of the indicator is to monitor for divergences. Divergences can last a long time and are poor timing signals. When divergence appears between the indicator and price, it doesn’t mean a reversal is imminent. It may take a long time for the price to reverse, or it may not reverse at all.

The A/D is just one tool that can be used to assess strength or weakness within a trend, but it is not without its faults. Use the A/D indicator in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as price action analysis, chart patterns, or fundamental analysis, to get a more complete picture of what is moving the price of a stock.

On-balance volume (OBV) is a technical trading momentum indicator that uses volume flow to predict changes in stock price. Joseph Granville first developed the OBV metric in the 1963 book Granville’s New Key to Stock Market Profits.1

Granville believed that volume was the key force behind markets and designed OBV to project when major moves in the markets would occur based on volume changes. In his book, he described the predictions generated by OBV as “a spring being wound tightly.” He believed that when volume increases sharply without a significant change in the stock’s price, the price will eventually jump upward or fall downward.

Image

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • On-balance volume (OBV) is a technical indicator of momentum, using volume changes to make price predictions.
  • OBV shows crowd sentiment that can predict a bullish or bearish outcome.
  • Comparing relative action between price bars and OBV generates more actionable signals than the green or red volume histograms commonly found at the bottom of price charts.

The Formula For OBV Is

The Formula For OBV Is

Calculating OBV

On-balance volume provides a running total of an asset’s trading volume and indicates whether this volume is flowing in or out of a given security or currency pair. The OBV is a cumulative total of volume (positive and negative). There are three rules implemented when calculating the OBV. They are:

1. If today’s closing price is higher than yesterday’s closing price, then: Current OBV = Previous OBV + today’s volume

2. If today’s closing price is lower than yesterday’s closing price, then: Current OBV = Previous OBV – today’s volume

3. If today’s closing price equals yesterday’s closing price, then: Current OBV = Previous OBV

What Does On-Balance Volume Tell You?

The theory behind OBV is based on the distinction between smart money – namely, institutional investors – and less sophisticated retail investors. As mutual funds and pension funds begin to buy into an issue that retail investors are selling, volume may increase even as the price remains relatively level. Eventually, volume drives the price upward. At that point, larger investors begin to sell, and smaller investors begin buying.

Despite being plotted on a price chart and measured numerically, the actual individual quantitative value of OBV is not relevant. The indicator itself is cumulative, while the time interval remains fixed by a dedicated starting point, meaning the real number value of OBV arbitrarily depends on the start date. Instead, traders and analysts look to the nature of OBV movements over time; the slope of the OBV line carries all of the weight of analysis.

Analysts look to volume numbers on the OBV to track large, institutional investors. They treat divergences between volume and price as a synonym of the relationship between “smart money” and the disparate masses, hoping to showcase opportunities for buying against incorrect prevailing trends. For example, institutional money may drive up the price of an asset, then sell after other investors jump on the bandwagon.

Example Of How To Use On-Balance Volume

Below is a list of 10 days’ worth of a hypothetical stock’s closing price and volume:

  1. Day one: closing price equals $10, volume equals 25,200 shares
  2. Day two: closing price equals $10.15, volume equals 30,000 shares
  3. Day three: closing price equals $10.17, volume equals 25,600 shares
  4. Day four: closing price equals $10.13, volume equals 32,000 shares
  5. Day five: closing price equals $10.11, volume equals 23,000 shares
  6. Day six: closing price equals $10.15, volume equals 40,000 shares
  7. Day seven: closing price equals $10.20, volume equals 36,000 shares
  8. Day eight: closing price equals $10.20, volume equals 20,500 shares
  9. Day nine: closing price equals $10.22, volume equals 23,000 shares
  10. Day 10: closing price equals $10.21, volume equals 27,500 shares

As can be seen, days two, three, six, seven and nine are up days, so these trading volumes are added to the OBV. Days four, five and 10 are down days, so these trading volumes are subtracted from the OBV. On day eight, no changes are made to the OBV since the closing price did not change. Given the days, the OBV for each of the 10 days is:

  1. Day one OBV = 0
  2. Day two OBV = 0 + 30,000 = 30,000
  3. Day three OBV = 30,000 + 25,600 = 55,600
  4. Day four OBV = 55,600 – 32,000 = 23,600
  5. Day five OBV = 23,600 – 23,000 = 600
  6. Day six OBV = 600 + 40,000 = 40,600
  7. Day seven OBV = 40,600 + 36,000 = 76,600
  8. Day eight OBV = 76,600
  9. Day nine OBV = 76,600 + 23,000 = 99,600
  10. Day 10 OBV = 99,600 – 27,500 = 72,100

The Difference Between OBV And Accumulation/Distribution

On-balance volume and the accumulation/distribution line are similar in that they are both momentum indicators that use volume to predict the movement of “smart money”. However, this is where the similarities end. In the case of on-balance volume, it is calculated by summing the volume on an up-day and subtracting the volume on a down-day.

The formula used to create the accumulation/distribution (Acc/Dist) line is quite different than the OBV shown above. The formula for the Acc/Dist, without getting too complicated, is that it uses the position of the current price relative to its recent trading range and multiplies it by that period’s volume.

Limitations Of OBV

One limitation of OBV is that it is a leading indicator, meaning that it may produce predictions, but there is little it can say about what has actually happened in terms of the signals it produces. Because of this, it is prone to produce false signals. It can therefore be balanced by lagging indicators. Add a moving average line to the OBV to look for OBV line breakouts; you can confirm a breakout in the price if the OBV indicator makes a concurrent breakout.

Another note of caution in using the OBV is that a large spike in volume on a single day can throw off the indicator for quite a while. For instance, a surprise earnings announcement, being added or removed from an index, or massive institutional block trades can cause the indicator to spike or plummet, but the spike in volume may not be indicative of a trend.

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